🇨🇳 China's Nuclear Strategy
Here is a timeline of major announcements and developments in China's National Nuclear Strategy over the past 50 years, presented with the most recent events first. Each entry provides key details and a link for further reading.
1. 2023: Expansion of China's Nuclear Capabilities
In 2023, China's military modernization continued, with the Pentagon reporting significant construction of missile silos and investments in land-based nuclear missiles. China maintains a policy of no first use (NFU) but has been developing its nuclear triad—land, sea, and air capabilities—to enhance deterrence. China's expanding arsenal includes approximately 350 launchers for land-based nuclear-capable missiles, with projections suggesting it could reach 1,500 warheads by 2035.
- More on China's nuclear expansion【42†source】【44†source】.
2. 2022: China's National Defense White Paper
In 2022, China reaffirmed its nuclear deterrence posture through its national defense white paper. The report highlighted the nation’s commitment to maintaining a minimal nuclear deterrence posture, ensuring a second-strike capability, and focusing on regional security threats, particularly in response to tensions with the United States.
- China’s 2022 Defense Strategy【43†source】.
3. 2020: Revised Nuclear Deterrence Policy
In 2020, China emphasized its commitment to no first use in its nuclear strategy while also developing a more survivable and modernized arsenal. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) began to practice high alert duty drills, signaling increased readiness and modernization of its nuclear forces, but China continues to keep most warheads separated from their launchers during peacetime.
4. 2015: China’s Military Strategy White Paper
The 2015 white paper provided insight into China’s active defense strategy and its expanding nuclear capabilities. This document emphasized that China’s nuclear weapons would remain defensive and that China was committed to developing a secure second-strike capability in case of an attack.
- Read more on China’s 2015 strategy【43†source】.
5. 2006: Emphasis on Minimum Deterrence
In the mid-2000s, China’s focus was on maintaining a minimum nuclear deterrence posture. Although China continued to expand its capabilities, it prioritized the ability to retaliate after a nuclear strike rather than pursuing first-strike capabilities. This strategy aimed to prevent conflicts with nuclear-armed rivals like the U.S. and Russia.
6. 1996: Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty
China signed the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) in 1996, committing to cease all nuclear tests. While China has not ratified the treaty, it has refrained from nuclear tests since signing, aligning with its strategy to modernize its arsenal without testing.
7. 1984: Development of China’s Nuclear Triad
During the 1980s, China began developing a more robust nuclear triad, focusing on land, sea, and air-based nuclear weapons systems. This effort sought to enhance its second-strike capability and solidify its deterrence posture against the U.S. and USSR during the Cold War.
8. 1964: First Nuclear Test
China’s nuclear journey began with its first successful nuclear test on October 16, 1964. This test marked China’s entrance into the nuclear weapons club, laying the foundation for its ongoing development of nuclear deterrence capabilities based on no first use.
This timeline showcases China's evolving nuclear strategy, which is heavily focused on maintaining a minimal but credible deterrent, ensuring second-strike capabilities, and modernizing its nuclear forces in response to global security dynamics. For more details on these developments, consult the original reports and analyses.
