The Shift #1. Political Stability, Hormuz Infrastructure & Cyber Acceleration
The Shift #1: US midterms and persuadable voters, oil below US$100, the NCSC’s 2028 AI cyber warning and China’s new AI export controls.
National Capability. Power, prosperity & resilience.
GINC’s mission is to advance the measurement and simulation of national capability: the foundational capacities, generational systems and frontier technologies that enable a nation to endure, adapt and compound advantage.
GINC Trends Index. Week 36, 2026
Week 36 of the GINC Trends Index: midterms and the AI sell-off drove attention, European security followed, and expectations of political volatility fell.
GINC Trends Index. Week 35, 2026
QUICK TAKE · AI Summary * The week AI-bubble fears went global, a selloff in AI stocks * the run-up to the US midterms * wave of disinformation around protests in France. Most of the world's structural trends barely moved this week. Across the 250 trends in the GINC Trends
GINC Trends Index. Week 34, 2026
QUICK TAKE · AI Summary * Bullet * Bullet * Bullet The week the streets came back The week to 24 October belonged to the streets and the shadows. Attention to civil unrest more than doubled and attention to hybrid warfare almost did, while the quieter forces of public finance, sovereign wealth and fiscal
GINC Trends Index / 2027
QUICK TAKE · AI Summary * Trends are * We use them for * Whats next Introduction What are GINC Trends, how are they identified, how are they useful and how do we use them. Thematic Clusters Overall Money and Debt sd Life Sciences & Food Climate & Hazards Conflict & Security Critical Technology
Critical Technology
QUICK TAKE · AI Summary * Bullet * Bullet * Bullet Critical Technology is the capacity to discover, make, deploy and control the technologies on which security and prosperity now depend. In the National Capability Framework it is one of three domains in the hard dimension of national power, organised into 10 technology families
Critical Technology ETFs
A guide to 20 critical technology ETFs spanning semiconductors, cybersecurity, nuclear energy and quantum computing, led by VanEck's Semiconductor ETF.
80 Years of United Nations Speeches in Charts
What eighty years of the General Debate show The complete verbatim record of every nation's annual statement to every other nation, across eighty sessions. This section sets out what the corpus supports, separated throughout from what it does not yet support. Eight eras, not eight decades. Membership and
The Lego War: Iran, Generative AI and the New Economics of Information Operations
Welcome to the new economics of information operations, where a sanctioned state can out-reach a superpower on its own platforms for the price of a cloud computing bill.
Game of Nations: The New Geopolitics of Sport
Saudi Arabia's $925 billion fund and 900+ sponsorship deals reshape sport diplomacy; GINC tracks hosting, elite performance, ownership and federation influence.