Capability Ratings
Future of Power. 2026 National Capability Ratings.
Mapping the global capability frontier across nine strategic domains
Critical Technology
How advanced technologies shape power, prosperity, and resilience, have driven the rise and decline of nations, and define the current leaders in critical technology
Hard Power
QUICK TAKE ยท AI Summary * ๐บ๐ธ The United States is the only nation to reach the Capability Frontier (Tier 1) across all three Hard Capability domains: Critical Technology, Strategic Infrastructure and National Security. * ๐จ๐ณ China and ๐ฎ๐ฑ Israel share second place overall. China holds Tier 1 in Strategic Infrastructure, and Israel holds Tier 1
Production and Innovation
Figure 1. Top 25 Nations: Production & Innovation Capability Frontier Production & Innovation Hard Capability Soft Capability Econ Capability Frontiers Tier Nation CT SI NS HC II GI FS PI TI T1 T2 T3 T1๐ฎ๐ฑ IsraelT2T2T1T1T2T1T3T1T1531 T1๐ธ๐ฌ SingaporeT4T1T4T1T1T1T1T1T17-- T1๐ฐ๐ท South KoreaT2T1T3T2T1T2T2T1T1441 T1๐ธ๐ช SwedenT2T1T4T2T1T1T1T1T253- T1๐บ๐ธ United StatesT1T1T1T1T1T3T1T1T18-1 T2๐จ๐ณ ChinaT2T1T2T3T2T4T3T2T2152 T2๐ฏ๐ต JapanT3T1T3T4T1T3T2T2T2233
Trade and Investment
Figure 1. Top 25 Nations: Trade and Investment Capability Frontier Trade & Investment Hard Capability Soft Capability Econ Capability Frontiers Tier Nation CT SI NS HC II GI FS PI TI T1 T2 T3 T1๐ช๐ช EstoniaT7T3T5T1T2T1T3T2T1322 T1๐ฎ๐ฑ IsraelT2T2T1T1T2T1T3T1T1531 T1๐ธ๐ฌ SingaporeT4T1T4T1T1T1T1T1T17-- T1๐ฐ๐ท South KoreaT2T1T3T2T1T2T2T1T1441 T1๐บ๐ธ United StatesT1T1T1T1T1T3T1T1T18-1 T2๐จ๐ณ ChinaT2T1T2T3T2T4T3T2T2152 T2๐ฉ๐ฐ DenmarkT5T2T5T2T1T1T2T2T225-
Governance and Integrity
Nations on the Global Capability Frontier for Governance and Integrity
Human Capital
Nations on the Global Capability Frontier for Human Capital
Strategic Infrastructure
Nations on the Global Capability Frontier for Strategic Infrastructure
Critical Technology
ETF Investment Guide: Semiconductors, Cybersecurity, Nuclear Energy, Quantum Computing and Critical Minerals
National Security
Nations on the Global Capability Frontier for National Security
Mapping & Measuring National Capability
Chinaโs AI push has shifted from catching up at home to setting the rules abroad, melding chip self-reliance, state capital, and Digital-Silk-Road diplomacy into a single strategic engine.
Iran is notably a T4 Frontier, National Security nation with a clear strength in Hard Power and much weaker Soft and Economic Power profiles
Australia sits 19th on the Global Capability Frontier, with strong performance all around, but lacking a T1 role in any of the nine capability domains.
Russia is not racing to lead AI globally, it is engineering an AI system it can control, sustain, and deploy under pressure.
๐ฒ๐ฆ Morocco leads Africa's Capability Frontier in T4 Information & Influence followed by T5 in National Security. ๐ช๐น Ethiopia sits on T4 for Productivity and Innovation and ๐ช๐ฌ Egypt T5 for National Security
QUICK TAKE ยท AI Summary * ๐น๐ผ Taiwan's strengths are in Production & Innovation and Investment & Trade where it holds a Tier 2 position in capability. * ๐น๐ผ Taiwan ranks 18th globally across the nine capability domains, just behind the ๐ฌ๐ง United Kingdom and just ahead of ๐ฆ๐บ Australia. * GINC's National Capability
Estonia sits on the global frontier (T1) for Human Capital, Governance & Integrity and Investment & Trade, positioning ๐ช๐ช Estonia in 7th place globally.
China is ranked 2nd in the Hard Capability domain behind the US, however ranks 15th across all nine capability domains, reflecting still emerging Soft Capabilities and Economic Capabilities.
How nations project influence: GINC assesses social cohesion, diplomacy, diaspora networks, and cultural reachโrevealing Nordic leaders and US dominance in different domains.
Nations on the Global Capability Frontier for Financial Strength
GINC analyzes national competitive position through three capability profiles, Balanced, Specialized or Asymmetric, using Pareto methodology to reveal how nations structure their strengths.
Critical technology frameworks vary by nation. US tracks 18 areas, China 10 sectors, EU 10 domains, yet all recognize AI, quantum, semiconductors, and biotech as essential to national power and prosperity.